Thank you for this essay and you are not alone. I spelled much of this out in my 2018 book, "Stress R Us", which Stanford keeps in their e-library and may be downloaded as a free PDF or purchased as a print on demand PB on Amazon. I earn nothing from either. The good news (?) is that Mother Nature long ago built-in population regulation through the stress system and it is currently dramatically reducing fertility. The chronic stress hormone, cortisol, inhibits the master reproductive hormone, GNRH. Again, all in the book. As Guy McPherson has said: nature bats last. HAVE A VERY HAPPY HOLIDAY! Gregg Miklashek, MD
That’s a good post ― it summarizes our predicaments well. Thank you for sharing.
Many of the early writers on these topics seem to have withdrawn from the public discussion.
I am thinking of people such as William Catton (who has since passed), Colin Campbell, George Mobus and Paul Chefurka. For myself, the money quotation is from Gus Speth of the Club of Rome. He said,
'I used to think that top environmental problems were biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and climate change. I thought that thirty years of good science could address these problems. I was wrong. The top environmental problems are selfishness, greed and apathy, and to deal with these we need a cultural and spiritual transformation. And we scientists don’t know how to do that.'
I expand the above line of thinking in the post No Happy Chapter at:
Fwiw, I agree. So did EO Wilson and Daniel Kannamahn. Human psychology is a core component of why collapse is inevitable.
At the end of the day, you don’t even have to understand why. You can just observe our behaviour, plus why the people you mention eventually give up. It’s beyond our capabilities to wilfully have the needed transformation. End of story.
Much appreciated hearing about your personal journey as to how you arrived at your conclusions. I looked around in the 80s, when I first heard about greenhouse gases, and I thought, “it sure doesn’t seem like we’re going to be able to stop.” And we haven’t. It feels to me like an avalanche coming toward us and no where to run. We just have the moments we do, while we do.
Thank you for your courage, honesty and clarity. We need to know and understand. We need to see ahead, but few are capable of seeing the whole picture because most people perceive reality in fragments rather than as a whole.
What keeps the growth demand spinning is Wall Street mania and its lock-step rule for quarterly profits. Investors are blind to what real wealth is - as if water, food, clothing and shelter spring from stock trades rather than from Nature, soil, aquifers, snowmelt, animals, bees, insects, trees, flowers, rain. Human alienation from Nature is a sickness.
May we wake up from this sickness before all options are exhausted and all hope is lost. The time bomb is ticking.
A good summary of important issues, and you obviously put a lot of work into it, so I commend you.
Personally, I come down on the side of reducing overall consumption as much as possible as quickly as possible. As you rightly pointed out, that's not compatible with the currently reigning economic system, so obviously that system needs to be abandoned. People say that's "unrealistic" but I think it's unrealistic to do anything other than that which is most likely to ensure our survival (not just for us humans but for everyone else on the planet).
I became “collapse/overshoot aware” in 2021 thanks to a Michael Dowd video sent to me by a friend. It fucked me up. I spiraled out in my life, made three years worth of poor choices, and have no idea what to do with my life… everything is doomed. It makes it really hard to plan for the future, when one has no idea how the future will unfold, only that it will look nothing at all like the past. It’s hard to be a doomer, on some level I’m glad I know, but honestly it’s made my life worse. Ignorance is bliss.
It's not easy and I've gone through phases of depression and anger, but not too extreme. I've come to accept that our species took a wrong turn a long time ago and it's not my fault. It's sad, but there's nothing I can do about it as an individual. Animals are not supposed to think about the future.
At the end of the day all we have is now, so I try to focus on that. Today, life can still be good. We still have food, water and nature. Enjoy it.
It can also be liberating. I don't sweat the small stuff anymore. It doesn't matter.
I think it’s unlikely that climate change will bring about our extinction. Focusing on improving your food systems and community wellbeing, connecting with nature and finding gratitude will provide a path forward. If you and your offspring get through the next hundred years I think there’s a higher chance than now of a responsible and respectful human existence. There is hope and how we act/who we become will allow that hope to create beauty as we live through the challenging years to come
Absolutely. I wouldn’t be surprised if the population halved over the next hundred years. But theres decent risk assessment available by region and you can find a place that may do better and begin to support resilient systems and community
I do recommend you check out Project Drawdown. There are many high impact solutions other than what you have listed here.
I can't argue with your logic, and Drawdown won't be enough to change things unless it's adopted worldwide. But I think we should at least do our part to share the information.
Thanks for the eye-opening article. Been reading these articles explaining the reality of our overshoot, since the 70s …. and have always managed to quickly close my eyes and retreat into some soothing, mind-numbing denial fantasy. Hoping I can use some metaphorical toothpicks to keep my eyes open this time
Excellent work! Clearly written and clear-eyed. It’s terrifying… and yet, we must somehow deal with it. There’s no way out of it, not now.
Like Jim Morrison said eons ago, “No one here gets out alive.” I’m glad you’ve chosen to spend some of your finite time on this Earth talking about this most existential crisis. Thank you. 🙏
Excellent, level-headed post about our predicament. I commend you for being able to remain reasonably calm, considering.
It’s remarkable how similar the journey is for those who awaken to this — and also how few are able to, I believe because it takes a rare combination of traits, and also circumstance/opportunity.
Best, most objective and comprehensive summary of where we are and what we might realistically be able to do (not much) I've ever read. As a healthy 75 year old, I expect I'll see the leading edge of our capitalistically inevitable trajectory firm up into something more visible/less deniable, and wonder/fear how the world will respond. I find I'm conflicted as I both do, and do not, want to know what my grandkids will be inheriting.
I have accepted this (very well written) truth since first discovered Peak Oil and Club of Rome in the early 2000s. At that time I ran around like Chicken Licken trying to alert all and sundry, to be met by waves of denial and apathy.
Now a grandmother of five steeped in consumerism and schools for non existent futures, it is sometimes very challenging.
Thanks for the thorough truth telling. I could be picky and mention soil, food security, population as drivers and constraints but it would depress us all further. What we know is that the planet can probably handle around 2-3 billion modern humans. It will spit the rest out… which is why overshoot scares everyone sh….
Well written distillation of incredibly complex matters. Thank you. We can look to our ancestors - recent and distant - and to First Peoples to learn how to carry on amidst collapse. Sharing that knowledge and world wisdom with each other and our children is where my focus lies. Letting go of the idea that someone will save us - governments, society, billionaire madmen - is step one. Let's support one another in coming to terms with our shared reality, then get on with survival! 🙏
This is a great article and really well thought out. Obviously it is much needed but getting people to read it and think about it is the challenge.
I think though that there a few things you have missed on the positive side. With technology we have done some brilliant things but we are just at the beginning in many cases. We are learning from our mistakes. So with the mining etc we are working on alternatives - batteries using sea water etc. (my worry on the technology front is that the “billionaires” will take it too far and cause more damage!
I believe there are many people (not yet enough) who want to change their lifestyles to less stuff and more community, healthy people and healthy planet etc. if we could find a way to build those numbers enough to influence politicians then we could change minds and hearts. Not simple I know.
As a grandmother I refuse to give in ( see my blog at agrandmothersdream.com) I think we have no choice but to fight. I am not naive, I am a retired scientist and I have read Collapse! We just need to keep going with the fight!
Thank you for this essay and you are not alone. I spelled much of this out in my 2018 book, "Stress R Us", which Stanford keeps in their e-library and may be downloaded as a free PDF or purchased as a print on demand PB on Amazon. I earn nothing from either. The good news (?) is that Mother Nature long ago built-in population regulation through the stress system and it is currently dramatically reducing fertility. The chronic stress hormone, cortisol, inhibits the master reproductive hormone, GNRH. Again, all in the book. As Guy McPherson has said: nature bats last. HAVE A VERY HAPPY HOLIDAY! Gregg Miklashek, MD
That’s a good post ― it summarizes our predicaments well. Thank you for sharing.
Many of the early writers on these topics seem to have withdrawn from the public discussion.
I am thinking of people such as William Catton (who has since passed), Colin Campbell, George Mobus and Paul Chefurka. For myself, the money quotation is from Gus Speth of the Club of Rome. He said,
'I used to think that top environmental problems were biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and climate change. I thought that thirty years of good science could address these problems. I was wrong. The top environmental problems are selfishness, greed and apathy, and to deal with these we need a cultural and spiritual transformation. And we scientists don’t know how to do that.'
I expand the above line of thinking in the post No Happy Chapter at:
https://faithclimate.substack.com/p/no-happy-chapter-b32.
Happy Holidays to all.
Fwiw, I agree. So did EO Wilson and Daniel Kannamahn. Human psychology is a core component of why collapse is inevitable.
At the end of the day, you don’t even have to understand why. You can just observe our behaviour, plus why the people you mention eventually give up. It’s beyond our capabilities to wilfully have the needed transformation. End of story.
Much appreciated hearing about your personal journey as to how you arrived at your conclusions. I looked around in the 80s, when I first heard about greenhouse gases, and I thought, “it sure doesn’t seem like we’re going to be able to stop.” And we haven’t. It feels to me like an avalanche coming toward us and no where to run. We just have the moments we do, while we do.
Thank you for your courage, honesty and clarity. We need to know and understand. We need to see ahead, but few are capable of seeing the whole picture because most people perceive reality in fragments rather than as a whole.
What keeps the growth demand spinning is Wall Street mania and its lock-step rule for quarterly profits. Investors are blind to what real wealth is - as if water, food, clothing and shelter spring from stock trades rather than from Nature, soil, aquifers, snowmelt, animals, bees, insects, trees, flowers, rain. Human alienation from Nature is a sickness.
May we wake up from this sickness before all options are exhausted and all hope is lost. The time bomb is ticking.
A good summary of important issues, and you obviously put a lot of work into it, so I commend you.
Personally, I come down on the side of reducing overall consumption as much as possible as quickly as possible. As you rightly pointed out, that's not compatible with the currently reigning economic system, so obviously that system needs to be abandoned. People say that's "unrealistic" but I think it's unrealistic to do anything other than that which is most likely to ensure our survival (not just for us humans but for everyone else on the planet).
I became “collapse/overshoot aware” in 2021 thanks to a Michael Dowd video sent to me by a friend. It fucked me up. I spiraled out in my life, made three years worth of poor choices, and have no idea what to do with my life… everything is doomed. It makes it really hard to plan for the future, when one has no idea how the future will unfold, only that it will look nothing at all like the past. It’s hard to be a doomer, on some level I’m glad I know, but honestly it’s made my life worse. Ignorance is bliss.
It's not easy and I've gone through phases of depression and anger, but not too extreme. I've come to accept that our species took a wrong turn a long time ago and it's not my fault. It's sad, but there's nothing I can do about it as an individual. Animals are not supposed to think about the future.
At the end of the day all we have is now, so I try to focus on that. Today, life can still be good. We still have food, water and nature. Enjoy it.
It can also be liberating. I don't sweat the small stuff anymore. It doesn't matter.
Here's a good video series that can help you: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QeYM1L0FfY&list=PLNcGo6a-yKuIubvDb6mIyd0KHQ-7UasJH
Ignorance is also suicide…….
I think it’s unlikely that climate change will bring about our extinction. Focusing on improving your food systems and community wellbeing, connecting with nature and finding gratitude will provide a path forward. If you and your offspring get through the next hundred years I think there’s a higher chance than now of a responsible and respectful human existence. There is hope and how we act/who we become will allow that hope to create beauty as we live through the challenging years to come
Maybe not total extinction, but there will be a population bottleneck. The earth can’t support 8 billion plus humans
Absolutely. I wouldn’t be surprised if the population halved over the next hundred years. But theres decent risk assessment available by region and you can find a place that may do better and begin to support resilient systems and community
Great article! Thank you.
I do recommend you check out Project Drawdown. There are many high impact solutions other than what you have listed here.
I can't argue with your logic, and Drawdown won't be enough to change things unless it's adopted worldwide. But I think we should at least do our part to share the information.
Just my two cents.
J.
https://youtu.be/D4vjGSiRGKY?si=1vWTVsKf-1XWAgrH
The only refuge is …. reality.
Thanks for the eye-opening article. Been reading these articles explaining the reality of our overshoot, since the 70s …. and have always managed to quickly close my eyes and retreat into some soothing, mind-numbing denial fantasy. Hoping I can use some metaphorical toothpicks to keep my eyes open this time
Excellent work! Clearly written and clear-eyed. It’s terrifying… and yet, we must somehow deal with it. There’s no way out of it, not now.
Like Jim Morrison said eons ago, “No one here gets out alive.” I’m glad you’ve chosen to spend some of your finite time on this Earth talking about this most existential crisis. Thank you. 🙏
Excellent, level-headed post about our predicament. I commend you for being able to remain reasonably calm, considering.
It’s remarkable how similar the journey is for those who awaken to this — and also how few are able to, I believe because it takes a rare combination of traits, and also circumstance/opportunity.
Best, most objective and comprehensive summary of where we are and what we might realistically be able to do (not much) I've ever read. As a healthy 75 year old, I expect I'll see the leading edge of our capitalistically inevitable trajectory firm up into something more visible/less deniable, and wonder/fear how the world will respond. I find I'm conflicted as I both do, and do not, want to know what my grandkids will be inheriting.
I have accepted this (very well written) truth since first discovered Peak Oil and Club of Rome in the early 2000s. At that time I ran around like Chicken Licken trying to alert all and sundry, to be met by waves of denial and apathy.
Now a grandmother of five steeped in consumerism and schools for non existent futures, it is sometimes very challenging.
Thanks for the thorough truth telling. I could be picky and mention soil, food security, population as drivers and constraints but it would depress us all further. What we know is that the planet can probably handle around 2-3 billion modern humans. It will spit the rest out… which is why overshoot scares everyone sh….
Well written distillation of incredibly complex matters. Thank you. We can look to our ancestors - recent and distant - and to First Peoples to learn how to carry on amidst collapse. Sharing that knowledge and world wisdom with each other and our children is where my focus lies. Letting go of the idea that someone will save us - governments, society, billionaire madmen - is step one. Let's support one another in coming to terms with our shared reality, then get on with survival! 🙏
Thank you for articulating how so many of us feel in this moment. It’s therapeutic to realize you’re not alone or crazy for thinking as we do.
Very succinct summary of why humanity is screwed.
This is a great article and really well thought out. Obviously it is much needed but getting people to read it and think about it is the challenge.
I think though that there a few things you have missed on the positive side. With technology we have done some brilliant things but we are just at the beginning in many cases. We are learning from our mistakes. So with the mining etc we are working on alternatives - batteries using sea water etc. (my worry on the technology front is that the “billionaires” will take it too far and cause more damage!
I believe there are many people (not yet enough) who want to change their lifestyles to less stuff and more community, healthy people and healthy planet etc. if we could find a way to build those numbers enough to influence politicians then we could change minds and hearts. Not simple I know.
As a grandmother I refuse to give in ( see my blog at agrandmothersdream.com) I think we have no choice but to fight. I am not naive, I am a retired scientist and I have read Collapse! We just need to keep going with the fight!