Yes, Climate Change Is Probably Going To Kill You

A lot of people don’t seem to understand the implications of climate change. The majority of people don’t deny that climate change is happening (well, at least outside of the United States), and most people also understand that it’s us causing it through emissions of greenhouse gases and land-use change. But they still don’t understand that they will probably die from it.

Climate change isn’t just about hotter summers or the ice caps melting. It’s about food production and fresh water. Floods, droughts, heatwaves, and all the other chaos we’re unleashing are already screwing up agriculture. Crops are failing. Food prices are already going up from climate change impacts. At some point, there won’t be enough food to feed everyone. When that happens, economies will crash, people will panic, and things could get ugly (violent) fast.

Here are the most likely ways you could die from climate change disruption:

• Food shortages

• Lack of fresh water

• Disease

• Mass migration

• Heat stress

• Conflicts from all of the above

We’ve already left the Holocene, a 12,000-year period providing us with predictable temperatures and rainfall patterns, enabling agriculture, overpopulation and our current out-of-control ecocidal civilization.

Look at this 10,000 year chart of CO₂ concentration:

Now look at this 12 000 year population chart:

Our ability to cultivate crops (grow food) at a global scale and grow our population to this point, was made possible by this stable climate (soon to be gone), fossil fuel energy, relentless resource exploitation, and our illusion of mastery over nature. When we started burning fossil fuels at large scale, our population exploded and so did the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere.

The Holocene is now over. We crossed the limits a long time ago and now the reckoning has arrived. There is no going back, not even if you buy an EV and some solar panels. Sorry.

The media and scientists often speak of first-order impacts, such as the melting of ice sheets and rising sea levels, rising temperatures leading to heat waves and droughts, increased and stronger natural disasters, and so on. I suppose they don’t want to cause too much panic, or maybe they are just in denial of reality.

Most people hear that and think:

• Sea levels rising by 1-2 meters by 2100? No problem, I can just move.

• Temperatures rising by 3°C globally? No problem, I live in a cold country and if it gets very hot I will turn on the air-conditioning.

• Another natural disaster? These things happen. We will rebuild.

• Loss of biodiversity? Sad, but who cares, doesn’t impact me. I am above nature and my food comes from the supermarket.

What they fail to understand, among many things, are the second and third order impacts from climate change disruption. Most people are 100% dependent on governments, society and global supply chains working the way they are today. Food in the supermarket. Gas at the gas station. Water on tap. Electrical grid powering critical infrastructure and households. Well guess what, climate change is about to disrupt all of that. The second or third-order impacts will ripple through economies and societies, and it has already started.

What has been going on in the past two centuries?

Since the early 19th century, atmospheric CO₂ concentration has risen from 280 ppm (parts per million) to 424 ppm, increasing by 144 ppm. Why? Because we have released approximately 2500 gigatons of CO₂ into the atmosphere, 2000 gigatons from fossil fuel combustion and 500 gigatons from deforestation and land-use change.

But how do we know CO₂ causes temperature rise? CO₂ and other GHG’s trap heat in the atmosphere, increasing global temperatures. This is called a greenhouse effect and is very basic physics. Look no further than the chart below.

But how do we know it’s us and not natural cycles? Because we are releasing a lot of CO₂ into the atmosphere. Burning one kg of oil (gasoline, diesel, kerosene, it doesn’t matter) releases 3.1 kg of CO₂. You may be thinking, how can 1 kg of something release 3.1 kg of something? It’s because each carbon atom in the fuel combines with two oxygen atoms from the air, increasing the mass. The same applies to coal and natural gas. Burning 1 kg of coal releases 2.6 kg of CO₂. Burning 1 kg of natural gas releases 2.75 kg of CO₂. This is also very basic science.

But CO₂ is plant food? Depends on the pace of emissions. To put the recent rise in CO₂ into perspective: the shift in CO₂ concentration between the last ice age and the Holocene was 100 ppm, and this change, driven by natural processes, happened over a 10,000 year period. This slow pace of change allowed animals, plants, and ecosystems to gradually adapt and migrate. But now, the rise in CO₂ is happening so rapidly, it’s as if an asteroid struck the planet. Coral refs are dying, forests are burning, and species are going extinct. They are not thriving in this climate. Nature doesn’t have the luxury of time to adjust to this kind of change, making it practically impossible for ecosystems and species to survive (including us).

The Science and Magnitude of Climate Change

Looking at the 400,000 year historical chart below, you will recognize that CO₂ concentration, global temperature and sea level have a positive correlation (they rise and fall together), and you can identify a pattern that repeats every 100,000 years or so. You may also notice that CO₂ concentration of 100 ppm has translated to around 5°C temperature change and a significant change in sea level. The causes of these natural cycles are from variations in the orbital eccentricity (100,000 year cycle), axial tilt (41,000 year cycle), and axial precession (26,000 year cycle). You can read more about these cycles here on NASA’s website.

Does this mean we have already locked in more than 5°C temperature change if 100 ppm of CO₂ led to 5°C before? No, not necessarily. There’s a lag effect and the starting conditions from those glacial periods were different, the planet was covered in massive ice sheets that slowly melted. It’s not a simple linear relationship, it’s a complex system. This time we have different tipping points and a degraded environment (weaker natural defenses).

Last time atmospheric CO₂ concentration was as 424 ppm, during the Mid-Pliocene 3-5 million years ago, temperatures were 2–4°C warmer than pre-industrial, and sea levels 15-25 meters higher. During the Jurassic era CO₂ was as high as 2000 ppm with temperatures only 4-6°C warmer than pre-industrial, however, the sun was 3-4% weaker than today, requiring more CO₂ to reach those temperatures.

Lag Effect - Decades

Warming from CO₂ emissions doesn’t happen instantly due to slow ocean heat uptake, thermal inertia, and aerosol masking effects. Some effects show up within a few years, but most unfold over 10–50 years, with full impacts taking centuries due to ocean and ice sheet dynamics.

This lag effect means the climate we have today in 2024, reflects emissions from decades ago, and the full impact of our current emissions are still on the way. We’re not yet feeling the heat of a 424 ppm CO₂ world, we’re living in the aftermath of a 350–370 ppm world.

Unfortunately we’re not stopping at 424 ppm, CO₂ concentration is increasing faster than ever before. Here is the keeling curve since records began:

Here is an 800 000 year chart:

We've clearly moved beyond the natural cycles of CO₂ variation and are now in uncharted territory.

What we have done is absolutely insane.

Pace of Emissions

Even in the best-case scenarios we’re projected to peak at around 550 ppm. That would lock in a climate shift equivalent to two ice ages, in the opposite direction, at a pace the Earth hasn’t experienced. Much faster than the Permian Extinction event 250 million years ago, the largest mass extinction event in history. Back then, volcanic activity released CO₂, methane, and other greenhouse gases over thousands to millions of years. This time, we're accomplishing a similar level of disruption in just a few decades.

Most people, including me, do not have a mental image of what this looks like, making it difficult to truly process what it means for life on earth. So let’s imagine the reverse, an ice age, which we have an understanding of what it looked like.

Imagine if we knew for a fact that in 75 years from now, in the year 2100, most of Canada, Northern United States, Northern Europe and the British Isles will be covered in a 1 km thick ice sheet. Governments, businesses, and people living in Toronto, New York, Chicago, London, Stockholm, would probably be in full panic mode, planning a move further south, causing real estate values to plummet and economic chaos as major cities are slowly being abandoned.

Who am I kidding, most people would probably be denying it or counting on some tech-solution, because that is exactly what is happening today.

The good news is that an ice age is not going to happen any time soon. The bad news is that what is going to happen, and it really is going to happen, is the opposite of an ice age, and it’s going to be twice as powerful (in the best case scenario) and 100 times faster.

This rapid climate shift is happening on a planet already in trouble from environmental degradation, with most of its natural defenses critically weakened. Original forest cover gone, most species practically at the cusp of extinction, oceans and ecosystems destroyed from chemicals, plastics and pollutants.

But we are probably not stopping at 550 ppm. There are tipping points that could push us much further.

The Tipping Points

I hear a lot of talk from climate scientists about “if we pass this tipping point then this or that”. I’m not a climate scientist, but it seems rather obvious to me, when reading the peer-reviewed scientific papers being published, that a lot of the tipping points have already been triggered meaning we can’t stop them, they are called tipping points for a reason. When we trigger them, the climate is out of humanity’s control.

Ice Melt and Albedo Effect - Tipping point 1.5–2°C

As temperatures rise (and they are rising 4 times faster in the arctic) the ice melts, and the surface changes from white (ice) to dark (ocean/land). White surfaces reflect 80-90% of solar radiation, and dark surfaces reflect only 10-20%, absorbing more heat. This is an amplifying (positive) feedback loop, and this process started decades ago. More heat, less ice. This means global temperatures will continue to increase even if we were to stop emissions today (we wont).

Melting ice also causes sea-level rise, and sure, it’s a bit further down the road, but even 1-2 meters of global sea level rise will collapse some countries and many cities. Coastal cities will flood, destroying infrastructure and agricultural land, leading to food shortages, civil unrest, economic and political disruption.

We have already locked in 7 meters of sea level rise. If all the ice melts, the sea level rise would be 70 meters, that’s the maximum when all ice is gone. This will take some time, perhaps a few centuries or millennia.

Boreal Permafrost Melt - Tipping point 1.5–4°C

Boreal permafrost is frozen ground that has stayed frozen for millions of years. The vegetation (dead plants and animals) froze before it could decompose. Obviously if the arctic ice is melting it means that frozen land is thawing. About 30-50% of all the organic carbon in the earth's soil is locked in the permafrost. As it thaws (unfreezes), it will decompose, releasing CO₂ and methane.

This is an amplifying feedback loop. The more permafrost thaws, the more GHG’s are released, causing even more warming and more permafrost to thaw. Since we have left the “Ice house” Earth, made possible by atmospheric CO₂ levels below 360 ppm, all of the permafrost will melt eventually. Not some of it, all of it.

How much is stored? 

Estimates say 1500 gigatons of CO₂ and 20 gigatons methane CH₄. Methane is 30 times more potent as a GHG.

From the UNFCC report

We are already seeing this happening at accelerating rates in some regions. There are several permafrost areas (mainly North America and Siberia) with different temperatures that will tip them. This is a ticking time-bomb that could go off at any moment. We simply do not know when.

Forest Dieback - Carbon Sinks to Carbon Sources - Tipping point 3–4°C

Our forests store an estimated total of 861 gigatons of CO₂ in their branches, leaves, roots, and soils, because trees and plants sequester CO₂ from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. Globally, plants and ecosystems sequester roughly 11-12 gigatons of CO₂ per year (25% of our global emissions). Forests have acted as carbon sinks. This is now changing and our forests are sequestering less CO₂ and turning into CO₂ sources. Why? When a forest dies, burns or is cut, that CO₂ is released back into the atmosphere.

This is an amplifying feedback loop that releases more CO₂ in the atmosphere, turning carbon sinks to carbon sources, causing even more warming and more wildfires.

In addition to the release of more CO₂, adding to global heating, losing our forests will further disrupt weather patterns, because they play a key role in the global water cycle. This will have direct impacts on food production and fresh water.

Obviously, they won’t be gone in a day, it’s a process, but the trend is clear and shows no signs of stopping at the moment.

Stopping deforestation would make a difference and at least buy us some time. What are the main causes of deforestation in the Amazon? 

• 60-80% is for cattle ranching (beef)

• 10-20% in soybean production (used for livestock feed)

• 5-10% is logging

When people say, stop eating beef, you really should stop. It’s in your best interest even if you don’t care about the animals.

All of our tropical rainforests, boreal forests, and temperate forests are experiencing die-off’s and degradation due to heat stress and droughts from climate change, invasive species and fungal infections, and deforestation from logging and agriculture.

Can forests adapt? Typically, forests can migrate at a rate of 100–500 meters per year, with trees moving along and seeds finding new ground. Animals follow, adjusting their behaviors and ranges to keep up. With today’s rapid warming, they need to migrate 1,000–10,000 meters per year. So no, they can’t adapt.

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) - Tipping point 2–4°C

The AMOC is a system of ocean currents that plays a critical role in regulating the Earth's climate. It's part of the global "conveyor belt" that redistributes heat and influences weather patterns worldwide i.e. temperatures and rainfall.

How it works:

• Warm surface water from the tropics flows northward through the Gulf Stream.

• Warm water reaches the Arctic and North Atlantic, it cools, becomes denser, and sinks to the deep ocean.

• The cold, dense water then flows back southward, creating a continuous circulation.

The AMOC keeps Northern Europe and North America warmer than they would otherwise be. It also plays a role in monsoons (rainfall) and temperatures in Africa, India, South East Asia and South America.

The AMOC is slowing down because of melting ice sheets increasing freshwater, disrupting the balance of salinity and density in the ocean. You see that little blue blob in the North Atlantic?

If the AMOC severely slows down or “collapses”, a possibility within a few decades, the Northern Hemisphere would see abrupt cooling of 5-10°C (paradoxically) with very wild temperature swings, sudden 1 meter sea level rise along the US east coast, and there would be large shifts in rainfall patterns across Africa, the Amazon and beyond. It would disrupt modern civilization and food production at a scale few can comprehend. 

If you think that sounds like good news because it would counteract global heating in some countries, slow down the permafrost thaw and stop the Arctic ice sheets melting, think again. Global warming wouldn’t stop, it would simply be redistributed with even more extreme and unpredictable consequences. Think about the impacts on food production and fresh water, the basis of our existence. A total disaster.

Coral Reef Bleaching and Ocean Acidification - Tipping point 1.5–2°C

Coral reefs are carbon sinks, just like the Amazon. Losing the coral reefs means decreasing the oceans capacity to absorb CO₂, making ocean acidification and global warming even worse. It’s also about biodiversity and loss of food-webs. Coral reefs cover only 1% of ocean floor but support 25% of marine species. Many marine species rely on reefs for habitat and food. Losing the coral reefs would lead to many extinctions and disrupt entire ocean ecosystems, that we depend on. Again, expect food shortages.

The coral reefs are already bleaching and dying. Globally we have lost 50% of coral reefs since 1950. If current trends continue, most coral reefs will be functionally lost by 2050.

Cascading Tipping Points

These tipping points feed off each other, creating a domino effect that will shove our climate into a whole new, unstable state. Right now, we’re on the verge of passing several of the above climate tipping points at the same time, around 2°C. After that we are no longer in control, and cannot stop it.

What About The Green Transition?

So the plan is to electrify our cargo ships, airplanes, cars, semi-trucks, tractors, excavators, bulldozers and so on. At the same time we will create the materials needed for continuing our way of life; steel, aluminium, concrete, cement, plastics, glass, copper, rubber, and textiles, without using fossil fuels – since we are phasing them out, right?

Let’s consider if we even have enough materials to build out this green transition. Dr. Simon Michaux at the Geological Survey of Finland has done some research on this crucial question. Let me just cut to the chase: we do not have enough materials even if we had all the time in the world to do this transition. But we don’t have any time left. And building out this green transition would require vast amounts of fossil fuels for mining, manufacturing and transportation, tipping us over 2°C either way. This is what we are doing now.

Secondly, let’s review how we manufacture most of our materials used for products and infrastructure. Most vehicles (cars, trucks, ships, airplanes) and machines require steel.

• How is steel made? With coal *steel from melt scrap can be done with electric ace furnaces, but this is small scale.

• Almost every product requires plastics, or is wrapped in it. How is plastic made? Petroleum *30% of plastic today is from recycled materials, can it scale?

• How are our roads made? Asphalt (petroleum) or concrete (cement - oil and coal)

• Industrial food production? We need many types of machines (oil & coal), lots of fresh water, and fertilizer (natural gas)

These are just some parts of the economy, but you probably get the point. Electrifying transportation is not enough. We are not going to save the planet by electrifying some parts of the economy, but we’re not even really doing that.

How do we transport all of these materials and products around the world in 2024?

• Cargo ships still use bunker fuel (oil).

• Airplanes still use jet fuel (oil).

• Trucks still use diesel (oil).

• Tractors still use diesel (oil).

• Mining involves many different vehicles such as dump trucks, excavators, bulldozers, haul trucks – all still use diesel.

And how is this transition going? It’s 2025 soon, have you seen any electric semi-trucks on the road? I haven’t. I see an endless amount of diesel trucks transporting stuff around. I see governments expanding airports with new runways. WTF. I have also not seen any electric cargo ships or airplanes. Have you? What I have seen is record amounts of fossil fuels being burned, we have data on this. How long does an EV battery last? Maybe 10-20 years. Then what?

But we have the technology to do this!? We may have some of the technology. We do not appear to have the minerals and materials required, and we certainly do not have the time. We are already at 1.5°C and will be at 2°C soon enough, this is locked in due to lag-effects in the climate system.

Our entire modern civilization is dependent on fossil fuels, including our food system. We can’t even feed 8 billion people without fossil fuels. This means that we can’t quit fossil fuels in a day, because it would lead to societal collapse and the death of billions. It has to be a transition and it has to be extremely fast, like 3-decades-ago fast.

And look at politics today. Does it seem like there is a will to do any of this? Denial and right-wing politics are on the rise, we are heading in the completely wrong direction. Trump just got re-elected, unfortunately it wasn’t rigged, this really is what the people voted for. As soon as the prices of groceries go up, nobody seems to care about existential issues. We can’t even agree on basic scientific facts.

Green growth as an idea is completely blind to materials and ecology. When you start discussing these things with them, they always shut down the conversation and say something like “we will figure it out, we always have”. Well what if we don’t? What if we fail? Because the science says it’s not even possible, which confirms we are likely going to fail. We need to prepare for that too.

What are some second and third-order impacts?

As mentioned at the beginning of the article: food shortages, lack of fresh water, disease, heat stress, mass migration and conflicts. These are the big impacts that will appear in different forms.

Just in terms of natural disasters, think about the recent storm in Valencia. It wiped out crops, farms, and infrastructure. Homes and livelihoods destroyed. Where are they going to go? Can they afford to rebuild their homes and replace everything that they lost? Did they have insurance? Do they even have a job now, or was their workplace wiped out as well? Worked in the tourism industry? Good luck. All of that equipment would need to be replaced, and the land restored, if they plan to grow food in the region at the same scale, and a lot of people depend on that food.

And this is just the beginning of climate disruption. Keep rebuilding? What do you do when this repeats year after year, because temperatures are going to increase and storms will keep getting worse, much worse. That’s where we are headed.

When Hurricane Helene ripped across the southeastern US, it caused flooding and damage to infrastructure in areas that have never seen anything like it. In western North Carolina the destruction was massive to homes, infrastructure, and farms. Many people lost everything, including their homes and jobs, and didn’t have insurance.

Where are they going to go? With what money? They spent days without power, cell phone service, and running water. Imagine not being able to flush your toilet for weeks, or months. That’s the kind of weird shit (pun-intended) you could be dealing with in the future. But that will actually be the least of your concerns. No power means no refrigeration, your food will spoil, that is, if you can get your hands on any food because the supermarket has already been raided, if you can even get there, with the roads being blocked or flooded.

Imagine there’s no FEMA or government coming to rescue you because they are overwhelmed by the amount of disasters and do not have the resources to rebuild and save everyone. Or your government has already partially collapsed and is being run by fools.

The insurance industry is already pulling out from many high risk regions, such as Florida and California. No insurance means nobody can’t get a mortgage on the house, which means it’s more difficult to sell, which means the value goes down, and if it gets wiped out in a storm, that’s it. You lost your home and you are left with nothing. Imagine a city with 30% unemployment. With 50% unemployment. Or maybe 50% homelessness. How does that not fall apart? Of course it falls apart.

These are just a few examples, and how you need to start thinking about climate change and how it will impact society.

There are an endless amount of second and third order impacts from climate change that it’s impossible to list and discuss them all. The economy will implode in one way or another (read my article on the end of growth) and you will see your savings wiped out quite suddenly when the cat is finally out of the bag.

Climate migration, resource conflicts, political instability, health system strains, civil unrest, hyperinflation, food and water shortages. These are all coming, sooner than you think.

Recent Acceleration

If you have been paying attention, you will know that things have really accelerated in the past two years. The 2023 El Niño set a new record, pushing global average temperatures to 1.6°C. Normally temperatures would drop after an El Niño, but this time they haven’t. Now scientists fear we may be in a systemic shift.

Even worse, the oceans, that absorb 90% of the excess heat we generate, have warmed faster than ever. But they won’t keep doing that forever. As they warm, they absorb less and start releasing some of that heat and CO₂ back, which makes global warming worse.

Climate scientists believe the planet is headed for at least 2.5°C of heating, and this means we will pass most tipping points and end up at 4-5°C on a scorched planet, this is already locked in.

A 3°C increase might not seem so severe at first, but keep in mind that this is the global average, which includes both oceans and land. Since land areas warm faster than oceans, the temperature increase on land would be closer to 6°C, and many crops are highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall.

Climate change is one symptom of a much larger problem that some call overshoot, essentially a combination of overpopulation and overconsumption. There is no easy way out. It’s a predicament.

Please enjoy this brutally honest scene from Newsroom 10 years ago.