Global warming is already locked in, with further temperature rises inevitable. This article explores the warming in the pipeline and the cascading tipping points that could escalate the crisis.
I’m especially tickled by how cloud formation itself may cease around 1200ppm, plunging us into Hothouse Earth pronto, with an additional +8C warming. This should make short work of any surviving stragglers. (Gallow’s humour)
If I remember right, Triassic was believed to have been at 1000ppm but rose to 1400ppm before the End-Triassic, and the Jurassic to have been stable at 2000ppm. This dances around the cloud threshold in a way that might mean that I need to reread the paper on the cloud feedback.
Yes this very well done. It's all happening, far faster than we imagined even three years ago. The issue for me is how we evolve socially and spiritually during this horrific time -- what I am calling Civilization's climax. Human behavior is the only system that can evolve rapidly enough to adapt to what is happening. The adaptation must be in the realm of human consciousness. And it will be a short term thing, to soften the blow and lessen suffering.
Wow, I just finished this and am just so astounded at how well you put together the science. This is all so disheartening to me. It seems even a sliver of hope is silly at this point. I have been learning to identify wild plants and what is edible in my off time, but it is a lot to learn and even if I Master enough of the knowledge, would it make it a difference in my life or those around me? I really wish we could all start banding together--those that accept this reality and begin making survival communities. I just feel weird clocking in at work like everything is normal, especially as a counselor. It all feels so fraudulent.
Sandy -- regarding people banding together, the org ClimateSafe Villages (https://www.climatesafevillages.org/ ) seems to be the best I've come across so far
Does not look good for our descendants on earth. Since we are technologically so far, far away from a Star Trek scenario in the universe, I believe planet earth is doomed. Unless the catastrophic effects of climate change reduce our human population to a couple billion, and, as the essay points out, the people left achieve a civilization based upon sustainability. A sustainability meaning what, exactly, if a purely agricultural society is not feasible. Food for thought, indeed.
There are convincing arguments that the future small communities will work best if they also share a common spiritual myth, (i.e. the Amish). The word “myth” should not be taken here as pejorative, collective energies are way too critical to be dismissed. I would think they could evolve in many forms, although the Prosperity Gospel might take a hit.
Brilliant, bullshit-free presentation. Puts all of our lives and deaths in real, though absurd, perspective.
Just one little pet peeve of omission - and it pertains to the “why” of human social conduct. What core feature animates such a destructive, heedless species?
Humanity’s ultrasociality, which it shares with its biomassive brethren ants and termites, and as explained in John Gowdy’s work. Humans cooperate in organized killing because of social status fears. Unlike Gowdy, I don’t think it’s possible to diminish this compulsion.
Well done and produced! I'm just some ole shlock retired physician/psychiatrist/addictionist, but I follow C3S and their "Climate Pulse" page daily, and Marietta, Ohio, along with many other locations in the east central US, is experiencing an unusually cold and snowy period. Who woulda thunk it during a period of global heating? Just go to the NWS "North American Surface Analysis" and download their US weather map to see the two powerful arctic low pressure systems driving the warm moist air up on the east side and pulling arctic cold dry air down on the back side. Point is, we are pumping the heat energy equivalent of 20+ Hiroshima yield nuclear bomb blasts PER SECOND into our environment, where each one releases 63 trillion BTUs. What we don't see and you didn't document in your otherwise thorough essay, is the massive amount of heat energy being absorbed in the 1.2 trillion tons annually, 3.3 billion tons daily, of melting global ice, or the unknown massive amount of heat energy being absorbed by the melting permafrost. I tried to calculate that and my old 'puter blew a fuse. I believe that we have gone over the Seneca cliff and are in a freefall that only the ice is saving us from fully appreciating/burning up. A while back I saw a reputable article estimating that we'd be 65 degF hotter today, were it not for the melting ice and ocean heat absorbing. C3S estimates that 2/3rds of the 220,000 melting glaciers worldwide will be gone by 2,100. Then what? Thanks for all you do and know that you/we are not alone. HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Midwife here. I know what you mean about surreal. I try not to think of what the future for the babies being born today will be like. The only way I can deal with it is to keep my eyes down, don’t look to the future too often. Make sure the new parents have a chance to bond with their baby over the few hrs I’ve got them.
I’m also trying to protect my little patch of earth, talking to my neighbours about protecting what we’ve got. Replanting public land with native species and explaining to people why we have to do it now, whist the growing conditions are still favourable. For me that seems like a good way to build community too.
Spectacular presentation of the inevitability of climate collapse - as only one of the many symptoms of our overshoot predicament. The science is communicated very clearly and can be easily understood by non-science brains. The graphs and data are all pertinent and easily interpreted. Overall, the communication is very concise and effective, and I thoroughly commend the author for their efforts.
While pollution would be fatal in isolation, resource depletion is the second arm of the vise & decisively prevents any future recovery. It could be worth shining light on the other sides of the box.
I’m especially tickled by how cloud formation itself may cease around 1200ppm, plunging us into Hothouse Earth pronto, with an additional +8C warming. This should make short work of any surviving stragglers. (Gallow’s humour)
If I remember right, Triassic was believed to have been at 1000ppm but rose to 1400ppm before the End-Triassic, and the Jurassic to have been stable at 2000ppm. This dances around the cloud threshold in a way that might mean that I need to reread the paper on the cloud feedback.
Amazing. Super well written and concise. Thanks again for your time an effort.
8 degrees is shocking. We will probably all be dead by 5, so we catch watch the world burn from "the other side" I suppose.
Yes this very well done. It's all happening, far faster than we imagined even three years ago. The issue for me is how we evolve socially and spiritually during this horrific time -- what I am calling Civilization's climax. Human behavior is the only system that can evolve rapidly enough to adapt to what is happening. The adaptation must be in the realm of human consciousness. And it will be a short term thing, to soften the blow and lessen suffering.
Wow, I just finished this and am just so astounded at how well you put together the science. This is all so disheartening to me. It seems even a sliver of hope is silly at this point. I have been learning to identify wild plants and what is edible in my off time, but it is a lot to learn and even if I Master enough of the knowledge, would it make it a difference in my life or those around me? I really wish we could all start banding together--those that accept this reality and begin making survival communities. I just feel weird clocking in at work like everything is normal, especially as a counselor. It all feels so fraudulent.
Sandy -- regarding people banding together, the org ClimateSafe Villages (https://www.climatesafevillages.org/ ) seems to be the best I've come across so far
Does not look good for our descendants on earth. Since we are technologically so far, far away from a Star Trek scenario in the universe, I believe planet earth is doomed. Unless the catastrophic effects of climate change reduce our human population to a couple billion, and, as the essay points out, the people left achieve a civilization based upon sustainability. A sustainability meaning what, exactly, if a purely agricultural society is not feasible. Food for thought, indeed.
There are convincing arguments that the future small communities will work best if they also share a common spiritual myth, (i.e. the Amish). The word “myth” should not be taken here as pejorative, collective energies are way too critical to be dismissed. I would think they could evolve in many forms, although the Prosperity Gospel might take a hit.
Brilliant, bullshit-free presentation. Puts all of our lives and deaths in real, though absurd, perspective.
Just one little pet peeve of omission - and it pertains to the “why” of human social conduct. What core feature animates such a destructive, heedless species?
Humanity’s ultrasociality, which it shares with its biomassive brethren ants and termites, and as explained in John Gowdy’s work. Humans cooperate in organized killing because of social status fears. Unlike Gowdy, I don’t think it’s possible to diminish this compulsion.
It seems to me that advertising works all too well.
Well done and produced! I'm just some ole shlock retired physician/psychiatrist/addictionist, but I follow C3S and their "Climate Pulse" page daily, and Marietta, Ohio, along with many other locations in the east central US, is experiencing an unusually cold and snowy period. Who woulda thunk it during a period of global heating? Just go to the NWS "North American Surface Analysis" and download their US weather map to see the two powerful arctic low pressure systems driving the warm moist air up on the east side and pulling arctic cold dry air down on the back side. Point is, we are pumping the heat energy equivalent of 20+ Hiroshima yield nuclear bomb blasts PER SECOND into our environment, where each one releases 63 trillion BTUs. What we don't see and you didn't document in your otherwise thorough essay, is the massive amount of heat energy being absorbed in the 1.2 trillion tons annually, 3.3 billion tons daily, of melting global ice, or the unknown massive amount of heat energy being absorbed by the melting permafrost. I tried to calculate that and my old 'puter blew a fuse. I believe that we have gone over the Seneca cliff and are in a freefall that only the ice is saving us from fully appreciating/burning up. A while back I saw a reputable article estimating that we'd be 65 degF hotter today, were it not for the melting ice and ocean heat absorbing. C3S estimates that 2/3rds of the 220,000 melting glaciers worldwide will be gone by 2,100. Then what? Thanks for all you do and know that you/we are not alone. HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Midwife here. I know what you mean about surreal. I try not to think of what the future for the babies being born today will be like. The only way I can deal with it is to keep my eyes down, don’t look to the future too often. Make sure the new parents have a chance to bond with their baby over the few hrs I’ve got them.
I’m also trying to protect my little patch of earth, talking to my neighbours about protecting what we’ve got. Replanting public land with native species and explaining to people why we have to do it now, whist the growing conditions are still favourable. For me that seems like a good way to build community too.
leaving the quaternary. the question now is - how deep in the zoological tree does the mass extinction go?
Spectacular presentation of the inevitability of climate collapse - as only one of the many symptoms of our overshoot predicament. The science is communicated very clearly and can be easily understood by non-science brains. The graphs and data are all pertinent and easily interpreted. Overall, the communication is very concise and effective, and I thoroughly commend the author for their efforts.
While pollution would be fatal in isolation, resource depletion is the second arm of the vise & decisively prevents any future recovery. It could be worth shining light on the other sides of the box.
Do you have any textbook recommendations to best understand climate change and all its factors like AMOC?